{
 "api_version": "v1",
 "data": {
  "naics": "322220",
  "label": "Paper Bag and Coated and Treated Paper Manufacturing",
  "scope": "United States",
  "operators": 365,
  "employees": 24493,
  "pay_per_employee_usd": 68705,
  "made_of": {
   "occupation": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
   "share_pct": 24.22,
   "concentration_vs_economy": 387.0
  },
  "licence_gate": {
   "occupation": "Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators",
   "jurisdictions_licensing": 1,
   "jurisdictions_searched": 54,
   "us_jurisdictions_total": 56,
   "exam_gated_licences": 0,
   "matched_by": "soc",
   "marginal": true
  },
  "labour": {
   "defining_occupation": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
   "employed_nationally": 65420,
   "median_wage_usd": 48480
  },
  "licensed_occupations": [
   {
    "occ_title": "Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators",
    "share_pct": 4.91,
    "ratio": 9.4,
    "defining": true,
    "states": 1,
    "licences": 2,
    "matched_by": "soc"
   },
   {
    "occ_title": "Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products",
    "share_pct": 2.56,
    "ratio": 3.1,
    "defining": false,
    "states": 17,
    "licences": 106,
    "matched_by": "soc"
   },
   {
    "occ_title": "Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand",
    "share_pct": 4.99,
    "ratio": 2.5,
    "defining": false,
    "states": 2,
    "licences": 4,
    "matched_by": "soc"
   }
  ],
  "acquisition_lending": {
   "naics": "322220",
   "business_age": "acquisition",
   "loans": 28,
   "gross_usd": 21897500,
   "guaranteed_usd": 16337150,
   "median_loan_usd": 1054500,
   "mean_rate_pct": 6.74,
   "mean_term_months": 101,
   "jobs_supported": 658,
   "years": "FY2013\u2013FY2025",
   "charge_off": {
    "pct": null,
    "resolved": 13,
    "read": "Only 13 seasoned loans have reached an outcome in this industry \u2014 too few to publish a rate. That is a thin lending history, which is itself worth knowing before assuming a lender will fund your deal."
   },
   "peer_rank": null
  },
  "cost_structure": {
   "margin_pct": 43.7,
   "cost_basis": "materials",
   "receipts_usd": 26755674000,
   "value_added_usd": 11704444000,
   "vintage": 2022,
   "read": "Margin computed by the Census Bureau as value added \u2014 receipts less the cost basis named. NULL where Census publishes no cost structure for the sector, which is most service industries; in that case use labour_share_of_receipts_pct and do NOT call it a margin."
  },
  "revenue_distribution": {
   "vintage": 2022,
   "firms": 510,
   "labour_share_of_receipts_pct": 14.5,
   "bands": [
    {
     "band": "<100",
     "lo": 0,
     "hi": 100000,
     "firms": 10,
     "share_pct": 2.0,
     "cumulative_pct": 2.0,
     "labour_share_pct": 10.8,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "100-499",
     "lo": 100000,
     "hi": 499000,
     "firms": 40,
     "share_pct": 7.8,
     "cumulative_pct": 9.8,
     "labour_share_pct": 27.9,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "500-999",
     "lo": 500000,
     "hi": 999000,
     "firms": 47,
     "share_pct": 9.2,
     "cumulative_pct": 19.0,
     "labour_share_pct": 23.9,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "1,000-2,499",
     "lo": 1000000,
     "hi": 2499000,
     "firms": 55,
     "share_pct": 10.8,
     "cumulative_pct": 29.8,
     "labour_share_pct": 24.0,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "2,500-4,999",
     "lo": 2500000,
     "hi": 4999000,
     "firms": 62,
     "share_pct": 12.2,
     "cumulative_pct": 42.0,
     "labour_share_pct": 24.4,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "5,000-7,499",
     "lo": 5000000,
     "hi": 7499000,
     "firms": 45,
     "share_pct": 8.8,
     "cumulative_pct": 50.8,
     "labour_share_pct": 19.6,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "7,500-9,999",
     "lo": 7500000,
     "hi": 9999000,
     "firms": 15,
     "share_pct": 2.9,
     "cumulative_pct": 53.7,
     "labour_share_pct": 16.5,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "10,000-14,999",
     "lo": 10000000,
     "hi": 14999000,
     "firms": 31,
     "share_pct": 6.1,
     "cumulative_pct": 59.8,
     "labour_share_pct": 17.4,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "15,000-19,999",
     "lo": 15000000,
     "hi": 19999000,
     "firms": 12,
     "share_pct": 2.4,
     "cumulative_pct": 62.2,
     "labour_share_pct": 16.0,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "20,000-24,999",
     "lo": 20000000,
     "hi": 24999000,
     "firms": 10,
     "share_pct": 2.0,
     "cumulative_pct": 64.1,
     "labour_share_pct": 17.0,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "25,000-29,999",
     "lo": 25000000,
     "hi": 29999000,
     "firms": 10,
     "share_pct": 2.0,
     "cumulative_pct": 66.1,
     "labour_share_pct": 13.0,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "30,000-34,999",
     "lo": 30000000,
     "hi": 34999000,
     "firms": 12,
     "share_pct": 2.4,
     "cumulative_pct": 68.4,
     "labour_share_pct": 15.4,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "35,000-39,999",
     "lo": 35000000,
     "hi": 39999000,
     "firms": 12,
     "share_pct": 2.4,
     "cumulative_pct": 70.8,
     "labour_share_pct": 16.1,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "40,000-49,999",
     "lo": 40000000,
     "hi": 49999000,
     "firms": 15,
     "share_pct": 2.9,
     "cumulative_pct": 73.7,
     "labour_share_pct": 15.5,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "50,000-74,999",
     "lo": 50000000,
     "hi": 74999000,
     "firms": 19,
     "share_pct": 3.7,
     "cumulative_pct": 77.5,
     "labour_share_pct": 13.2,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "75,000-99,999",
     "lo": 75000000,
     "hi": 99999000,
     "firms": 16,
     "share_pct": 3.1,
     "cumulative_pct": 80.6,
     "labour_share_pct": 12.1,
     "adjusted": true
    },
    {
     "band": "100,000+",
     "lo": 100000000,
     "hi": null,
     "firms": 99,
     "share_pct": 19.4,
     "cumulative_pct": 100.0,
     "labour_share_pct": 14.3,
     "adjusted": true
    }
   ],
   "read": "Firms by RECEIPT SIZE. Labour share is payroll over receipts \u2014 not gross margin, which cannot be derived because Census publishes no cost of goods. Enterprise-level: a firm is counted once at its total size, not per location."
  },
  "standing": {
   "naics4": "3222",
   "percentile": 26,
   "peers": 287,
   "years": [
    2019,
    2023
   ],
   "net_formation_pct": -1.16,
   "band": "dying faster than it is forming",
   "calibration": {
    "rho": 0.57,
    "windows": 4,
    "separation_pp": 42.6
   },
   "read": "Among 287 industries, this one sits at the 26th percentile on net establishment formation over 2019-2023 \u2014 it is dying faster than it is forming. That signal carries a measured rank correlation of 0.57 with the following decade's growth across 4 backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. It describes the INDUSTRY, not a business in it, and it was calibrated against establishment growth rather than returns to an operator."
  },
  "rubric_coverage": {
   "covered": 65,
   "total": 100,
   "partial": 25,
   "absent": 10,
   "rubric": "O1.0-20260804"
  },
  "dimensions": [
   {
    "code": "O1",
    "weight": 25,
    "status": "evidenced",
    "predictive": "predictive",
    "evidence": "365 operators employing 24,493 people across 74 counted areas",
    "source": "US Census County Business Patterns"
   },
   {
    "code": "O2",
    "weight": 15,
    "status": "partial",
    "predictive": "not backtested",
    "evidence": "$136,272,175 in federal awards to 36 distinct recipients, largest buyer Department of Defense. That is ONE buyer \u2014 federal procurement \u2014 not the private market, so it evidences that this work is paid for at scale, not what a private customer pays.",
    "source": "USASpending.gov \u2014 US federal government work, public domain"
   },
   {
    "code": "O3",
    "weight": 15,
    "status": "evidenced",
    "predictive": "not backtested",
    "evidence": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders \u2014 24.22% of employment here, 387.0\u00d7 its share across the whole economy \u2014 is licensed in 1 jurisdictions, 0 of those licences exam-gated. Matched on SOC 53-7051.",
    "source": "CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor"
   },
   {
    "code": "O4",
    "weight": 15,
    "status": "evidenced",
    "predictive": "not backtested",
    "evidence": "65,420 Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders employed nationally at a $48,480 median wage",
    "source": "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024"
   },
   {
    "code": "O5",
    "weight": 10,
    "status": "no producer",
    "predictive": "not backtested",
    "evidence": "Per-operator enforcement records exist for some jurisdictions but are not loaded against industries, only against named businesses.",
    "source": "none"
   },
   {
    "code": "O6",
    "weight": 10,
    "status": "partial",
    "predictive": "not backtested",
    "evidence": "Margin is 43.7% of receipts, computed by the Census Bureau as value added \u2014 receipts less cost of materials \u2014 across $26.8bn of industry receipts. This is a REAL cost structure, not a labour proxy: Census collects one for this sector. Payroll is 14.5% of receipts alongside it.",
    "source": "US Census Economic Census 2022"
   },
   {
    "code": "O7",
    "weight": 10,
    "status": "evidenced",
    "predictive": "DESCRIPTIVE ONLY",
    "evidence": "1.7 establishments per firm in 2023 across 1,942 firms and 3,297 establishments: some multi-site operators, so a second location is a proven move here. 99 firms closed entirely that year, an establishment exit rate of 4.264%.",
    "source": "US Census Business Dynamics Statistics \u2014 public domain"
   }
  ]
 },
 "sources": [
  "US Census CBP 2023",
  "BLS OEWS 2024",
  "CareerOneStop licence register 2024",
  "Census BDS 1978-2023",
  "USASpending 2021-2025"
 ],
 "gaps": [
  "licence gate \u2014 the only occupation matched is 'Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders' at 24.22% of this industry's employment, licensed in 1 of 56 jurisdictions. Reported, but too narrow to be read as this industry's barrier to entry.",
  "licence titles in this scope \u2014 none matched 'Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders', though it is licensed in 1 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally.",
  "occupation mix for NAICS 322220 \u2014 the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 322200, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 322220 itself.",
  "licence coverage \u2014 the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 1 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence.",
  "bonding_required_usd \u2014 no producer, and not estimated"
 ],
 "licence": {
  "federal_public_domain": "US Census, BLS and USASpending figures are works of the United States Government, public domain under 17 U.S.C. 105. Freely usable, redistributable and resaleable.",
  "occupational_licences": "Licence data derives from CareerOneStop, sponsored by the US Department of Labor, ETA. Supplied on condition it remains publicly available at no cost and without a log-in.",
  "our_analysis": "Rubrics, scoring, backtests and written analysis are 8th Wave Media LLC. The facts underneath them are not.",
  "not_advice": "Research against public records. Not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, and no figure here is a prediction about your business."
 },
 "attribution": "RootOptics \u2014 ro.8thwavemedia.com"
}