Gypsum Product Manufacturing · the United States
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Net establishment formation, 5yr | -1.95% |
| Standing among all industries | 15th of 287 |
| Reads as | shrinking hard |
| Signal strength, backtested | ρ 0.57 over 4 windows |
Among 287 industries, this one sits at the 15th percentile on net establishment formation over 2019-2023 — it is shrinking hard. That signal carries a measured rank correlation of 0.57 with the following decade's growth across 4 backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. It describes the INDUSTRY, not a business in it, and it was calibrated against establishment growth rather than returns to an operator.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Operators | 38 |
| People employed | 2,007 |
| Pay per employee | $97,931 |
| What the work is | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers |
| Median wage, that occupation | $55,450 |
| Licensed in | 39 jurisdictions |
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? |
|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY |
65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced, 25 partially, 10 have no producer. No total score is rendered from that. PREDICTS is a separate question from EVIDENCE: a dimension can rest on a real sourced figure and have no measured relationship with what happens next.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 7 |
| Median loan | $557,867 |
| Mean rate | 6.83% |
| Mean term | 161 months |
| Charged off | — |
Only 4 seasoned loans have reached an outcome in this industry — too few to publish a rate. That is a thin lending history, which is itself worth knowing before assuming a lender will fund your deal. SBA 7(a) FOIA data, FY2013–FY2024. Loans to acquire an EXISTING business, separated from start-up lending by the SBA's own business-age field. Charge-off is measured on RESOLVED loans only — a loan approved last year has not had time to fail.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 50.2% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of materials |
| Industry receipts | $9.2bn |
Computed by the Census Bureau, not by us. Economic Census 2022. Census collects a cost structure for this sector and collects none for most service industries; where it does not, this document shows labour share and refuses to call it a margin.
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 3 | 3.3% | 190.1% |
| 100-499 | 21 | 22.8% | 24.9% |
| 500-999 | 20 | 21.7% | 26.3% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 20 | 21.7% | 23.2% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 13 | 14.1% | 20.6% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 3 | 3.3% | 27.2% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 3 | 3.3% | 24.0% |
| 100,000+ | 9 | 9.8% | 10.4% |
Payroll is 10.7% of receipts industry-wide across 92 firms. LABOUR SHARE, NOT MARGIN: Census publishes receipts and payroll and never cost of goods, so gross margin cannot be derived and is not claimed here. Enterprise receipts — a firm counted once at its total size, not per location. Census SUSB 2022.
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers', though it is licensed in 39 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 327420 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 327000, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 327420 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 39 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |
Stated rather than filled. An absence of match is not an absence of fact.
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