School and Employee Bus Transportation · the United States
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Net establishment formation, 5yr | -1.60% |
| Standing among all industries | 19th of 287 |
| Reads as | shrinking hard |
| Signal strength, backtested | ρ 0.57 over 4 windows |
Among 287 industries, this one sits at the 19th percentile on net establishment formation over 2019-2023 — it is shrinking hard. That signal carries a measured rank correlation of 0.57 with the following decade's growth across 4 backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. It describes the INDUSTRY, not a business in it, and it was calibrated against establishment growth rather than returns to an operator.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Operators | 3,286 |
| People employed | 183,061 |
| Pay per employee | $32,857 |
| What the work is | Bus Drivers, School |
| Median wage, that occupation | $49,380 |
| Licensed in | 28 jurisdictions |
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? |
|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY |
65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced, 25 partially, 10 have no producer. No total score is rendered from that. PREDICTS is a separate question from EVIDENCE: a dimension can rest on a real sourced figure and have no measured relationship with what happens next.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 243 |
| Median loan | $289,147 |
| Mean rate | 7.16% |
| Mean term | 121 months |
| Charged off | 6.7% |
6.7% of resolved SBA acquisition loans in this industry were charged off, across 135 loans that have actually reached an outcome. Cohorts from FY2021 onward are EXCLUDED from this rate: a loan approved recently has not had time to fail, and counting it would make every industry look safe. SBA 7(a) FOIA data, FY2010–FY2026. Loans to acquire an EXISTING business, separated from start-up lending by the SBA's own business-age field. Charge-off is measured on RESOLVED loans only — a loan approved last year has not had time to fail.
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 339 | 14.1% | 35.9% |
| 100-499 | 726 | 30.1% | 36.0% |
| 500-999 | 408 | 16.9% | 39.2% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 429 | 17.8% | 42.9% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 180 | 7.5% | 43.5% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 74 | 3.1% | 46.3% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 58 | 2.4% | 44.3% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 56 | 2.3% | 46.6% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 31 | 1.3% | 42.3% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 14 | 0.6% | 36.1% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 11 | 0.5% | 51.4% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 15 | 0.6% | 35.0% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 10 | 0.4% | 50.5% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 8 | 0.3% | 47.9% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 12 | 0.5% | 38.5% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 12 | 0.5% | 41.8% |
| 100,000+ | 29 | 1.2% | 56.4% |
Payroll is 49.4% of receipts industry-wide across 2,412 firms. LABOUR SHARE, NOT MARGIN: Census publishes receipts and payroll and never cost of goods, so gross margin cannot be derived and is not claimed here. Enterprise receipts — a firm counted once at its total size, not per location. Census SUSB 2022.
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Bus Drivers, School', though it is licensed in 28 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 485410 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 485400, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 485410 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 28 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |
Stated rather than filled. An absence of match is not an absence of fact.
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