Real Estate Credit · the United States
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Net establishment formation, 5yr | -1.33% |
| Standing among all industries | 21th of 287 |
| Reads as | dying faster than it is forming |
| Signal strength, backtested | ρ 0.57 over 4 windows |
Among 287 industries, this one sits at the 21th percentile on net establishment formation over 2019-2023 — it is dying faster than it is forming. That signal carries a measured rank correlation of 0.57 with the following decade's growth across 4 backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. It describes the INDUSTRY, not a business in it, and it was calibrated against establishment growth rather than returns to an operator.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Operators | 15,755 |
| People employed | 237,054 |
| Pay per employee | $102,463 |
| What the work is | Loan Officers |
| Median wage, that occupation | $63,370 |
| Licensed in | 27 jurisdictions |
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? |
|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY |
65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced, 25 partially, 10 have no producer. No total score is rendered from that. PREDICTS is a separate question from EVIDENCE: a dimension can rest on a real sourced figure and have no measured relationship with what happens next.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 37 |
| Median loan | $352,854 |
| Mean rate | 6.07% |
| Mean term | 162 months |
| Charged off | — |
Only 18 seasoned loans have reached an outcome in this industry — too few to publish a rate. That is a thin lending history, which is itself worth knowing before assuming a lender will fund your deal. SBA 7(a) FOIA data, FY2011–FY2023. Loans to acquire an EXISTING business, separated from start-up lending by the SBA's own business-age field. Charge-off is measured on RESOLVED loans only — a loan approved last year has not had time to fail.
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 580 | 15.6% | 127.2% |
| 100-499 | 1,034 | 27.9% | 42.3% |
| 500-999 | 430 | 11.6% | 35.7% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 463 | 12.5% | 37.9% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 267 | 7.2% | 54.6% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 117 | 3.2% | 40.4% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 68 | 1.8% | 44.7% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 95 | 2.6% | 46.3% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 64 | 1.7% | 45.6% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 60 | 1.6% | 42.2% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 34 | 0.9% | 50.6% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 33 | 0.9% | 49.0% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 28 | 0.8% | 45.5% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 34 | 0.9% | 44.9% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 82 | 2.2% | 48.4% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 43 | 1.2% | 44.2% |
| 100,000+ | 279 | 7.5% | 30.8% |
Payroll is 33.0% of receipts industry-wide across 3,711 firms. LABOUR SHARE, NOT MARGIN: Census publishes receipts and payroll and never cost of goods, so gross margin cannot be derived and is not claimed here. Enterprise receipts — a firm counted once at its total size, not per location. Census SUSB 2022.
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 522292 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 522290, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 522292 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 27 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |
Stated rather than filled. An absence of match is not an absence of fact.
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