Convention and Visitors Bureaus · the United States
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Net establishment formation, 5yr | -3.56% |
| Standing among all industries | 4th of 287 |
| Reads as | shrinking hard |
| Signal strength, backtested | ρ 0.57 over 4 windows |
Among 287 industries, this one sits at the 4th percentile on net establishment formation over 2019-2023 — it is shrinking hard. That signal carries a measured rank correlation of 0.57 with the following decade's growth across 4 backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. It describes the INDUSTRY, not a business in it, and it was calibrated against establishment growth rather than returns to an operator.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Operators | 209 |
| People employed | 3,120 |
| Pay per employee | $94,021 |
| What the work is | Travel Agents |
| Median wage, that occupation | $47,980 |
| Licensed in | 1 jurisdictions |
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? |
|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY |
65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced, 25 partially, 10 have no producer. No total score is rendered from that. PREDICTS is a separate question from EVIDENCE: a dimension can rest on a real sourced figure and have no measured relationship with what happens next.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 3 |
| Median loan | $588,333 |
| Mean rate | 5.92% |
| Mean term | 176 months |
| Charged off | — |
Only 0 seasoned loans have reached an outcome in this industry — too few to publish a rate. That is a thin lending history, which is itself worth knowing before assuming a lender will fund your deal. SBA 7(a) FOIA data, FY2015–FY2026. Loans to acquire an EXISTING business, separated from start-up lending by the SBA's own business-age field. Charge-off is measured on RESOLVED loans only — a loan approved last year has not had time to fail.
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 83 | 9.4% | 35.7% |
| 100-499 | 286 | 32.4% | 32.9% |
| 500-999 | 183 | 20.7% | 27.0% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 155 | 17.5% | 27.3% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 74 | 8.4% | 24.9% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 28 | 3.2% | 23.9% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 15 | 1.7% | 24.0% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 16 | 1.8% | 23.1% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 11 | 1.2% | 25.5% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 9 | 1.0% | 23.2% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 6 | 0.7% | 23.6% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 5 | 0.6% | 18.6% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 3 | 0.3% | 22.1% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 5 | 0.6% | 17.1% |
| 100,000+ | 5 | 0.6% | 11.1% |
Payroll is 21.6% of receipts industry-wide across 884 firms. LABOUR SHARE, NOT MARGIN: Census publishes receipts and payroll and never cost of goods, so gross margin cannot be derived and is not claimed here. Enterprise receipts — a firm counted once at its total size, not per location. Census SUSB 2022.
| Gap |
|---|
| licence gate — the only occupation matched is 'Travel Agents' at 24.5% of this industry's employment, licensed in 1 of 56 jurisdictions. Reported, but too narrow to be read as this industry's barrier to entry. |
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Travel Agents', though it is licensed in 1 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 561591 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 561500, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 561591 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 1 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |
Stated rather than filled. An absence of match is not an absence of fact.
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