The record

What we predicted, and what happened

Predictions are frozen with a date and a falsifying threshold before the outcome is known. Nothing is edited afterwards, and the misses stay up.

InstrumentARBITER

Rubricw3.0-20260804

Interval±3.1 at 95%

Measuredn=10, sd=1.6, 2026-08-04

nothing is edited after the fact

Frozen predictions

No predictions have resolved yet

The first two pass marks resolve 21 and 30 August 2026.

A frozen prediction is attributable to the rubric. D6 and D7 carry the loosest dimension-level agreement (sd 3.85 / 3.67) and the weights damp them; the total holds inside +/-3.1 at 95%.