Which of these?
261 six-digit industries can be ranked here — those with a defining occupation, which is what the licence gate is derived through. Another 695 carry establishment and dynamics data but cannot be ranked, and are absent for that reason rather than for failing a filter. Ranked by the one signal backtested against forty-five years of outcomes.
Every filter is a figure from a named federal source. There is no growth-potential slider, because we would have to invent the number behind it.
Shortlist
| Industry | NAICS | #Net formation | #Operators | #Licensed in | The work | #Median wage | #Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other Financial Vehicles | 525990 | +10.60% | 1,282 | none | — | — | not published |
| Open-End Investment Funds | 525910 | +10.60% | 209 | none | — | — | not published |
| General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Les | 484122 | +7.15% | 9,678 | none | — | — | not published |
| General Freight Trucking, Local | 484110 | +7.15% | 45,076 | none | — | — | not published |
| General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Tru | 484121 | +7.15% | 59,133 | none | — | — | not published |
| Facilities Support Services | 561210 | +6.64% | 8,127 | none | — | — | not published |
| Monetary Authorities-Central Bank | 521110 | +6.15% | 12 | none | — | — | not published |
| Educational Support Services | 611710 | +5.58% | 11,396 | none | — | — | not published |
| Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers | 711510 | +5.48% | 37,712 | none | — | — | not published |
| Ice Manufacturing | 312113 | +5.42% | 54 | none | — | — | 76.3% |
| Wineries | 312130 | +5.42% | 3,676 | none | — | — | 60.1% |
| Breweries | 312120 | +5.42% | 4,290 | none | — | — | 65.3% |
| Soft Drink Manufacturing | 312111 | +5.42% | 322 | none | — | — | 31.8% |
| Bottled Water Manufacturing | 312112 | +5.42% | 53 | none | — | — | 49.7% |
| Distilleries | 312140 | +5.42% | 734 | none | — | — | 79.4% |
| One-Hour Photofinishing | 812922 | +5.24% | 12 | none | — | — | not published |
| All Other Personal Services | 812990 | +5.24% | 23,647 | none | — | — | not published |
| Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services | 812910 | +5.24% | 24,378 | none | — | — | not published |
| Parking Lots and Garages | 812930 | +5.24% | 11,799 | none | — | — | not published |
| Photofinishing Laboratories (except One-Hour | 812921 | +5.24% | 140 | none | — | — | not published |
| All Other Support Activities for Transportat | 488999 | +4.76% | 498 | none | — | — | not published |
| Packing and Crating | 488991 | +4.76% | 1,120 | none | — | — | not published |
| Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers | 531210 | +4.64% | 163,019 | none | — | — | not published |
| Child and Youth Services | 624110 | +4.40% | 15,097 | none | — | — | not published |
| Other Individual and Family Services | 624190 | +4.40% | 36,303 | none | — | — | not published |
| Services for the Elderly and Persons with Di | 624120 | +4.40% | 38,927 | 40 | Personal Care and Service | $37,900 | not published |
| Other Management Consulting Services | 541618 | +4.31% | 13,761 | none | — | — | not published |
| Marketing Consulting Services | 541613 | +4.31% | 51,209 | none | — | — | not published |
| Process, Physical Distribution, and Logistic | 541614 | +4.31% | 7,493 | none | — | — | not published |
| Administrative Management and General Manage | 541611 | +4.31% | 103,333 | none | — | — | not published |
| Environmental Consulting Services | 541620 | +4.31% | 8,695 | none | — | — | not published |
| Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Se | 541690 | +4.31% | 26,747 | none | — | — | not published |
| Human Resources Consulting Services | 541612 | +4.31% | 7,860 | none | — | — | not published |
Ranked on net establishment formation — entry rate minus exit rate over five years. That measure carries a rank correlation of +0.567 with the following decade's growth across four independent backtested windows, separating top and bottom deciles by 42.6 percentage points. Every other screening tool ranks on a proprietary score nobody outside it can check. This ranks on the one measure that has been graded against outcomes, and the grading is published at /api/v1/calibration.
MARGIN READS "not published" FOR MOST SERVICE INDUSTRIES, and that is a coverage fact rather than a low margin. The Economic Census collects a cost structure for construction, manufacturing and wholesale and collects none for retail, transport, professional services, food service or personal services. Filtering on a minimum margin therefore removes every industry Census does not measure — which is a real narrowing and worth knowing you have done.
Take this shortlist away → One self-contained file with the criteria stated above the result, a content hash anyone can check at /verify, and what it does not tell you. A shortlist without its criteria is a list of industries with no account of why those — and the criteria being inside the hash is how a recipient can tell they were chosen before the result rather than after it.
What the licence gate bands mean
| Band | Median 10-year growth of industries in it |
|---|---|
| none | -4.2% median 10-year growth — no barrier means no protection from the next entrant |
| marginal (1-9) | +11.4% — the strongest bucket in all three backtested windows |
| moderate (10-39) | +8.5% |
| high (40+) | +4.9% — a gate so high it also deters the operator |
166 industries, three independent windows. Industries with no licence gate shrank in every one; every gated bucket beat them. The peak is a MARGINAL gate, not a high one — which contradicts what our own rubric asserts, and the contradiction is recorded next to the rubric rather than quietly resolved.