Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Breweries
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 312120
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
98th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +5.42% | 98th of 287 | forming much faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 65.3% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of materials |
| Industry receipts | $29.4bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 1,102 |
| Median loan | $282,776 |
| Mean rate | 6.91% |
| Mean term | 128 months |
| Charged off | 7.2% |
4,922 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 559 | 11.4% | 11.4% | 34.9% |
| 100-499 | 1,506 | 30.6% | 42.0% | 40.8% |
| 500-999 | 1,114 | 22.6% | 64.6% | 37.6% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 987 | 20.1% | 84.6% | 36.3% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 398 | 8.1% | 92.7% | 33.3% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 122 | 2.5% | 95.2% | 31.9% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 67 | 1.4% | 96.6% | 31.7% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 54 | 1.1% | 97.7% | 29.5% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 31 | 0.6% | 98.3% | 27.2% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 22 | 0.4% | 98.7% | 22.4% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 11 | 0.2% | 99.0% | 21.5% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 3 | 0.1% | 99.0% | 22.8% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 5 | 0.1% | 99.1% | 16.6% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 8 | 0.2% | 99.3% | 25.4% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 6 | 0.1% | 99.4% | 15.6% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 8 | 0.2% | 99.6% | 12.7% |
| 100,000+ | 21 | 0.4% | 100.0% | 8.1% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 1,102 |
| Median loan | $282,776 |
| Typical rate | 6.91% |
| Typical term | 128 months |
| Total approved | $667,104,900 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 7.2% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 400 |
| Rank among industries | 58th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bartenders | 11.74% | 20.1× | 11 of 56 |
| Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 8.5% | 33.6× | 1 of 56 |
| Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders | 7.58% | 213.7× | 1 of 56 |
| Demonstrators and Product Promoters | 3.48% | 101.3× | 1 of 56 |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 4.16% | 5.1× | 17 of 56 |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 5.91% | 2.9× | 8 of 56 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 3.29% | 1.6× | 2 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 312120 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 312100, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 312120 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 11 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |