Operate · the United States
Underwriting: New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders)
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
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not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 236115
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
94th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +4.17% | 94th of 287 | forming much faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 27.3% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of subcontracted work |
| Industry receipts | $117.8bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 3,992 |
| Median loan | $82,659 |
| Mean rate | 7.85% |
| Mean term | 98 months |
| Charged off | 10.2% |
59,293 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 11,082 | 18.7% | 18.7% | 25.2% |
| 100-499 | 23,942 | 40.4% | 59.1% | 27.3% |
| 500-999 | 5,655 | 9.5% | 68.6% | 24.0% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 8,518 | 14.4% | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 4,783 | 8.1% | 91.0% | 11.7% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 1,984 | 3.3% | 94.4% | 9.4% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 1,008 | 1.7% | 96.1% | 8.6% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 974 | 1.6% | 97.7% | 8.8% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 403 | 0.7% | 98.4% | 8.5% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 241 | 0.4% | 98.8% | 8.2% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 142 | 0.2% | 99.1% | 7.2% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 89 | 0.2% | 99.2% | 8.3% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 88 | 0.1% | 99.4% | 7.1% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 77 | 0.1% | 99.5% | 8.5% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 118 | 0.2% | 99.7% | 7.7% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 51 | 0.1% | 99.8% | 7.1% |
| 100,000+ | 138 | 0.2% | 100.0% | 7.8% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 3,992 |
| Median loan | $82,659 |
| Typical rate | 7.85% |
| Typical term | 98 months |
| Total approved | $907,500,900 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 10.2% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 1,644 |
| Rank among industries | 85th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Managers | 5.91% | 23.9× | 35 of 56 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 8.47% | 14.1× | 16 of 56 |
| Construction Laborers | 14.78% | 19.7× | 10 of 56 |
| Carpenters | 22.9% | 48.5× | 4 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 4.64% | 1.9× | 23 of 56 |
| Project Management Specialists | 4.25% | 6.0× | 3 of 56 |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2.65% | 2.7× | 2 of 56 |
| Office Clerks, General | 3.95% | 2.3× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Carpenters', though it is licensed in 35 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 236115 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 236100, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 236115 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 35 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |