Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 238220
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
75th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1.76% | 75th of 287 | forming faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 59.1% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of subcontracted work |
| Industry receipts | $297.6bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 8,964 |
| Median loan | $115,000 |
| Mean rate | 7.35% |
| Mean term | 118 months |
| Charged off | 6.4% |
107,004 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 17,681 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 32.1% |
| 100-499 | 32,855 | 30.7% | 47.2% | 32.9% |
| 500-999 | 17,185 | 16.1% | 63.3% | 28.9% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 20,640 | 19.3% | 82.6% | 28.1% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 9,052 | 8.5% | 91.0% | 28.4% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 3,167 | 3.0% | 94.0% | 28.5% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 1,662 | 1.6% | 95.5% | 27.6% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 1,701 | 1.6% | 97.1% | 26.9% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 837 | 0.8% | 97.9% | 25.7% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 486 | 0.5% | 98.4% | 25.9% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 361 | 0.3% | 98.7% | 24.8% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 245 | 0.2% | 98.9% | 25.2% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 169 | 0.2% | 99.1% | 23.8% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 212 | 0.2% | 99.3% | 25.2% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 307 | 0.3% | 99.6% | 24.0% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 106 | 0.1% | 99.7% | 25.0% |
| 100,000+ | 338 | 0.3% | 100.0% | 26.2% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 8,964 |
| Median loan | $115,000 |
| Typical rate | 7.35% |
| Typical term | 118 months |
| Total approved | $2,537,345,200 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 6.4% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 3,953 |
| Rank among industries | 48th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 25.64% | 63.4× | 43 of 56 |
| Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers | 22.83% | 65.2× | 35 of 56 |
| Sheet Metal Workers | 3.8% | 40.4× | 7 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 3.39% | 1.4× | 23 of 56 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 4.25% | 7.1× | 16 of 56 |
| Office Clerks, General | 4.22% | 2.5× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 43 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |