Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Frozen Cakes, Pies, and Other Pastries Manufacturing
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 311813
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
79th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +2.34% | 79th of 287 | forming faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 48.0% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of materials |
| Industry receipts | $8.2bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 55 |
| Median loan | $202,300 |
| Mean rate | 7.74% |
| Mean term | 104 months |
| Charged off | 15.4% |
190 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 22 | 11.6% | 11.6% | 32.5% |
| 100-499 | 32 | 16.8% | 28.4% | 31.2% |
| 500-999 | 14 | 7.4% | 35.8% | 31.8% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 28 | 14.7% | 50.5% | 24.5% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 12 | 6.3% | 56.8% | 31.6% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 8 | 4.2% | 61.1% | 21.5% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 4 | 2.1% | 63.2% | 19.2% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 7 | 3.7% | 66.8% | 21.6% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 8 | 4.2% | 71.1% | 17.4% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 4 | 2.1% | 73.2% | 21.9% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 3 | 1.6% | 74.7% | 15.3% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 3 | 1.6% | 76.3% | 22.4% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 9 | 4.7% | 81.1% | 21.8% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 5 | 2.6% | 83.7% | 18.4% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 4 | 2.1% | 85.8% | 14.1% |
| 100,000+ | 27 | 14.2% | 100.0% | 14.2% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 55 |
| Median loan | $202,300 |
| Typical rate | 7.74% |
| Typical term | 104 months |
| Total approved | $22,961,100 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 15.4% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 26 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers and Packagers, Hand | 4.85% | 12.0× | 2 of 56 |
| Food Batchmakers | 7.94% | 70.1× | 1 of 56 |
| Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 7.0% | 27.7× | 1 of 56 |
| Retail Salespersons | 3.42% | 1.5× | 27 of 56 |
| Cashiers | 5.67% | 2.9× | 6 of 56 |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 4.78% | 1.9× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence gate — the only occupation matched is 'Bakers' at 22.72% of this industry's employment, licensed in 1 of 56 jurisdictions. Reported, but too narrow to be read as this industry's barrier to entry. |
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Bakers', though it is licensed in 1 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 311813 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 311800, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 311813 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 1 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |