Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Tobacco Manufacturing
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 312230
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
5th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.31% | 5th of 287 | shrinking hard | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 85.8% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of materials |
| Industry receipts | $50.9bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2014–FY2025
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 8 |
| Median loan | $233,333 |
| Mean rate | 7.1% |
| Mean term | 91 months |
| Charged off | — |
109 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 11 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 238.9% |
| 100-499 | 24 | 22.0% | 32.1% | 102.8% |
| 500-999 | 10 | 9.2% | 41.3% | 22.5% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 9 | 8.3% | 49.5% | 38.7% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 5 | 4.6% | 54.1% | 14.4% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 6 | 5.5% | 59.6% | 14.1% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 7 | 6.4% | 66.1% | 17.2% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 4 | 3.7% | 69.7% | 9.6% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 4 | 3.7% | 73.4% | 7.2% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 3 | 2.8% | 76.1% | 4.0% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 5 | 4.6% | 80.7% | 12.8% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 3 | 2.8% | 83.5% | 17.0% |
| 100,000+ | 18 | 16.5% | 100.0% | 1.7% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2014–FY2025
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 8 |
| Median loan | $233,333 |
| Typical rate | 7.1% |
| Typical term | 91 months |
| Total approved | $3,077,000 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 3.52% | 8.7× | 12 of 56 |
| Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders | 15.4% | 60.8× | 1 of 56 |
| Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders | 8.59% | 684.6× | 1 of 56 |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 4.44% | 16.2× | 1 of 56 |
| Industrial Production Managers | 3.06% | 19.9× | 1 of 56 |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 2.67% | 3.2× | 17 of 56 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 6.47% | 3.2× | 2 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders', though it is licensed in 12 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 312230 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 312200, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 312230 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 12 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |