Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
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not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 339930
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
30th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.85% | 30th of 287 | dying faster than it is forming | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 53.4% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less cost of materials |
| Industry receipts | $1.7bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2012–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 102 |
| Median loan | $357,393 |
| Mean rate | 7.61% |
| Mean term | 117 months |
| Charged off | 15.0% |
491 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 106 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 356.5% |
| 100-499 | 162 | 33.0% | 54.6% | 35.1% |
| 500-999 | 51 | 10.4% | 65.0% | 29.2% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 81 | 16.5% | 81.5% | 24.8% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 38 | 7.7% | 89.2% | 25.9% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 16 | 3.3% | 92.5% | 14.6% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 11 | 2.2% | 94.7% | 17.5% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 5 | 1.0% | 95.7% | 7.1% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 5 | 1.0% | 96.7% | 22.0% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 3 | 0.6% | 97.4% | 13.9% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 3 | 0.6% | 98.0% | 6.2% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 4 | 0.8% | 98.8% | 10.4% |
| 100,000+ | 6 | 1.2% | 100.0% | 10.2% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2012–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 102 |
| Median loan | $357,393 |
| Typical rate | 7.61% |
| Typical term | 117 months |
| Total approved | $39,111,200 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 15.0% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 40 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other | 2.99% | 24.6× | 13 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 3.79% | 1.5× | 23 of 56 |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 4.07% | 4.9× | 17 of 56 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 2.66% | 1.3× | 2 of 56 |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 2.66% | 4.7× | 1 of 56 |
| Office Clerks, General | 2.27% | 1.3× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers', though it is licensed in 13 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 339930 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 339900, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 339930 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 13 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |