Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Warm Air Heating and Air-Conditioning Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 423730
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
52th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.33% | 52th of 287 | roughly in balance | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 84.4% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less operating expenses |
| Industry receipts | $96.6bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 202 |
| Median loan | $233,647 |
| Mean rate | 6.99% |
| Mean term | 114 months |
| Charged off | 8.3% |
2,072 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 80 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 87.0% |
| 100-499 | 240 | 11.6% | 15.4% | 24.0% |
| 500-999 | 203 | 9.8% | 25.2% | 18.3% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 325 | 15.7% | 40.9% | 17.0% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 284 | 13.7% | 54.6% | 16.2% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 132 | 6.4% | 61.0% | 16.7% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 99 | 4.8% | 65.8% | 12.6% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 125 | 6.0% | 71.8% | 13.3% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 84 | 4.1% | 75.9% | 12.8% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 54 | 2.6% | 78.5% | 11.3% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 41 | 2.0% | 80.5% | 11.0% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 26 | 1.3% | 81.7% | 11.9% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 32 | 1.5% | 83.3% | 13.3% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 59 | 2.8% | 86.1% | 12.3% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 69 | 3.3% | 89.4% | 10.7% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 41 | 2.0% | 91.4% | 13.3% |
| 100,000+ | 178 | 8.6% | 100.0% | 8.3% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 202 |
| Median loan | $233,647 |
| Typical rate | 6.99% |
| Typical term | 114 months |
| Total approved | $133,370,900 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 8.3% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 109 |
| Rank among industries | 70th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 12.44% | 15.1× | 17 of 56 |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 3.05% | 15.9× | 4 of 56 |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 2.47% | 2.4× | 39 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 4.75% | 1.9× | 23 of 56 |
| Light Truck Drivers | 2.74% | 4.3× | 9 of 56 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 6.72% | 3.4× | 2 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 423730 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 423000, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 423730 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 17 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |