Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Confectionery Merchant Wholesalers
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 424450
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
38th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.51% | 38th of 287 | dying faster than it is forming | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
Economic Census 2022
What it costs to produce
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Margin on receipts | 89.3% |
| Computed as | value added — receipts less operating expenses |
| Industry receipts | $77.2bn |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 156 |
| Median loan | $205,494 |
| Mean rate | 7.35% |
| Mean term | 113 months |
| Charged off | 5.2% |
1,820 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 172 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 27.6% |
| 100-499 | 449 | 24.7% | 34.1% | 17.3% |
| 500-999 | 272 | 14.9% | 49.1% | 11.1% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 328 | 18.0% | 67.1% | 11.2% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 189 | 10.4% | 77.5% | 10.6% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 92 | 5.1% | 82.5% | 9.3% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 65 | 3.6% | 86.1% | 9.0% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 49 | 2.7% | 88.8% | 8.6% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 37 | 2.0% | 90.8% | 9.3% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 26 | 1.4% | 92.3% | 7.3% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 16 | 0.9% | 93.1% | 11.7% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 12 | 0.7% | 93.8% | 6.3% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 9 | 0.5% | 94.3% | 10.5% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 17 | 0.9% | 95.2% | 8.3% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 23 | 1.3% | 96.5% | 8.2% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 6 | 0.3% | 96.8% | 7.4% |
| 100,000+ | 58 | 3.2% | 100.0% | 3.4% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 156 |
| Median loan | $205,494 |
| Typical rate | 7.35% |
| Typical term | 113 months |
| Total approved | $67,426,600 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 5.2% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 77 |
| Rank among industries | 31th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Economic Census 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 12.37% | 15.0× | 17 of 56 |
| Driver/Sales Workers | 3.76% | 13.6× | 3 of 56 |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 8.06% | 7.8× | 39 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 3.71% | 1.5× | 23 of 56 |
| Light Truck Drivers | 2.53% | 4.0× | 9 of 56 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 7.58% | 3.8× | 2 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 424450 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 424000, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 424450 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 17 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |