Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Baked Goods Retailers
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
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not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 445291
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
74th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1.71% | 74th of 287 | forming faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 694 |
| Median loan | $180,176 |
| Mean rate | 7.25% |
| Mean term | 127 months |
| Charged off | 8.6% |
2,363 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 370 | 15.7% | 15.7% | 27.8% |
| 100-499 | 985 | 41.7% | 57.3% | 25.3% |
| 500-999 | 492 | 20.8% | 78.2% | 24.5% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 357 | 15.1% | 93.3% | 25.0% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 74 | 3.1% | 96.4% | 25.9% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 31 | 1.3% | 97.7% | 22.7% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 11 | 0.5% | 98.2% | 18.6% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 17 | 0.7% | 98.9% | 21.8% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 8 | 0.3% | 99.2% | 16.5% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 6 | 0.3% | 99.5% | 32.7% |
| 100,000+ | 12 | 0.5% | 100.0% | 12.0% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 694 |
| Median loan | $180,176 |
| Typical rate | 7.25% |
| Typical term | 127 months |
| Total approved | $254,783,700 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 8.6% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 303 |
| Rank among industries | 72th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 5.8% | 8.7× | 9 of 56 |
| Cashiers | 28.35% | 14.6× | 6 of 56 |
| Food Preparation Workers | 5.77% | 9.1× | 1 of 56 |
| Butchers and Meat Cutters | 3.23% | 37.4× | 1 of 56 |
| Retail Salespersons | 5.16% | 2.3× | 27 of 56 |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 4.12% | 1.7× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Cashiers', though it is licensed in 9 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 445291 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 445000, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 445291 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 9 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |