Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Flight Training
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 611512
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
72th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1.67% | 72th of 287 | forming faster than it is dying | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 120 |
| Median loan | $218,459 |
| Mean rate | 7.21% |
| Mean term | 112 months |
| Charged off | 14.9% |
959 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 170 | 17.7% | 17.7% | 35.7% |
| 100-499 | 282 | 29.4% | 47.1% | 25.7% |
| 500-999 | 143 | 14.9% | 62.0% | 26.2% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 191 | 19.9% | 82.0% | 23.6% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 87 | 9.1% | 91.0% | 26.6% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 19 | 2.0% | 93.0% | 23.7% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 19 | 2.0% | 95.0% | 31.1% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 13 | 1.4% | 96.4% | 25.9% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 6 | 0.6% | 97.0% | 31.9% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 4 | 0.4% | 97.4% | 24.2% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 3 | 0.3% | 97.7% | 19.5% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 5 | 0.5% | 98.2% | 37.3% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 4 | 0.4% | 98.6% | 36.7% |
| 100,000+ | 13 | 1.4% | 100.0% | 39.2% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 120 |
| Median loan | $218,459 |
| Typical rate | 7.21% |
| Typical term | 112 months |
| Total approved | $69,814,400 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 14.9% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 47 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Career/Technical Education Teachers, Postsecondary | 29.69% | 415.6× | 45 of 56 |
| Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors | 3.12% | 14.2× | 41 of 56 |
| Self-Enrichment Teachers | 2.92% | 14.2× | 25 of 56 |
| Commercial Pilots | 3.68% | 122.9× | 16 of 56 |
| Training and Development Specialists | 3.76% | 12.8× | 8 of 56 |
| Education Administrators, Postsecondary | 2.92% | 25.7× | 1 of 56 |
| Office Clerks, General | 3.31% | 1.9× | 1 of 56 |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2.92% | 2.5× | 1 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 611512 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 611500, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 611512 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 45 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |