Operate · the United States
Underwriting: Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
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not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 722410
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
41th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.34% | 41th of 287 | roughly in balance | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 2,275 |
| Median loan | $151,612 |
| Mean rate | 7.26% |
| Mean term | 146 months |
| Charged off | 6.0% |
39,098 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 5,009 | 12.8% | 12.8% | 36.0% |
| 100-499 | 17,662 | 45.2% | 58.0% | 28.9% |
| 500-999 | 8,378 | 21.4% | 79.4% | 31.4% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 5,744 | 14.7% | 94.1% | 34.8% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 1,556 | 4.0% | 98.1% | 34.1% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 355 | 0.9% | 99.0% | 31.4% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 134 | 0.3% | 99.3% | 30.0% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 95 | 0.2% | 99.6% | 32.4% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 42 | 0.1% | 99.7% | 34.4% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 22 | 0.1% | 99.7% | 30.6% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 19 | 0.0% | 99.8% | 29.9% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 10 | 0.0% | 99.8% | 25.0% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 8 | 0.0% | 99.8% | 33.3% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 13 | 0.0% | 99.9% | 32.1% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 9 | 0.0% | 99.9% | 35.5% |
| 100,000+ | 42 | 0.1% | 100.0% | 19.1% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 2,275 |
| Median loan | $151,612 |
| Typical rate | 7.26% |
| Typical term | 146 months |
| Total approved | $796,816,800 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 6.0% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 1,112 |
| Rank among industries | 42th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bartenders | 43.76% | 74.8× | 11 of 56 |
| Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers | 3.74% | 8.5× | 2 of 56 |
| Cooks, Short Order | 1.83% | 16.9× | 1 of 56 |
| Security Guards | 4.74% | 4.6× | 36 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 2.79% | 1.1× | 23 of 56 |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 12.66% | 6.2× | 8 of 56 |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 9.65% | 7.5× | 7 of 56 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 5.58% | 6.5× | 3 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| occupation mix for NAICS 722410 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 722400, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 722410 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 11 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |