Operate · the United States
Underwriting: School and Employee Bus Transportation
What public records can and cannot establish about running this business in the United States, dimension by dimension, with the gaps named.
—
not scored
REWORK
PROVE
OPEN
NOT SCORED. 65 of 100 rubric points are evidenced deterministically from public records; 10 have no producer. The ±3.1 interval measured elsewhere on this site is ARBITER's sampling variance and does not apply to a SQL query, which returns the same answer every time it runs.
IndustryNAICS 485410
Scopethe United States
RubricO1.0-20260804
Pricedfree — no account, no gate
19th percentile of 287 industries
Where this industry stands
| Net formation, 5yr | Percentile | Reads as | Signal strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.60% | 19th of 287 | shrinking hard | ρ 0.57 across 4 backtested windows, 42.6pp decile separation |
SBA 7(a) acquisition loans · FY2010–FY2026
Can you borrow to buy one
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Acquisition loans approved | 243 |
| Median loan | $289,147 |
| Mean rate | 7.16% |
| Mean term | 121 months |
| Charged off | 6.7% |
2,412 firms · Census SUSB 2022
What firms here actually earn
| Revenue band ($000) | Firms | Share | Cumulative | Labour share of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <100 | 339 | 14.1% | 14.1% | 35.9% |
| 100-499 | 726 | 30.1% | 44.2% | 36.0% |
| 500-999 | 408 | 16.9% | 61.1% | 39.2% |
| 1,000-2,499 | 429 | 17.8% | 78.9% | 42.9% |
| 2,500-4,999 | 180 | 7.5% | 86.3% | 43.5% |
| 5,000-7,499 | 74 | 3.1% | 89.4% | 46.3% |
| 7,500-9,999 | 58 | 2.4% | 91.8% | 44.3% |
| 10,000-14,999 | 56 | 2.3% | 94.1% | 46.6% |
| 15,000-19,999 | 31 | 1.3% | 95.4% | 42.3% |
| 20,000-24,999 | 14 | 0.6% | 96.0% | 36.1% |
| 25,000-29,999 | 11 | 0.5% | 96.4% | 51.4% |
| 30,000-34,999 | 15 | 0.6% | 97.1% | 35.0% |
| 35,000-39,999 | 10 | 0.4% | 97.5% | 50.5% |
| 40,000-49,999 | 8 | 0.3% | 97.8% | 47.9% |
| 50,000-74,999 | 12 | 0.5% | 98.3% | 38.5% |
| 75,000-99,999 | 12 | 0.5% | 98.8% | 41.8% |
| 100,000+ | 29 | 1.2% | 100.0% | 56.4% |
SBA 7(a) · FY2010–FY2026
Can an acquisition here be financed?
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| SBA acquisition loans on record | 243 |
| Median loan | $289,147 |
| Typical rate | 7.16% |
| Typical term | 121 months |
| Total approved | $123,758,600 |
| Charge-off rate, seasoned cohorts | 6.7% |
| Loans that reached an outcome | 135 |
| Rank among industries | 51th of 501 |
Take this away
| Format | What it is |
|---|---|
| download the document → | One self-contained file — no stylesheet, no fonts, no scripts. Works offline, prints, and carries a content hash anyone can verify at /verify without an account. |
| JSON → | The same figures as data, with every source and gap attached. |
65 of 100 rubric points evidenced
What this report can and cannot underwrite
| Dimension | Weight | Evidence | Predicts? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O1 · Demand density and recurrence | 25 | evidenced | predictive · ρ +0.57 | US Census County Business Patterns |
| O2 · Payment evidence | 15 | partial | not backtested | USASpending.gov — US federal government work, public domain |
| O3 · Licence gate favourability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | CareerOneStop / ARC, U.S. Department of Labor |
| O4 · Labour availability | 15 | evidenced | not backtested | BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 |
| O5 · Incumbent weakness | 10 | no producer | not backtested | none |
| O6 · Margin structure | 10 | partial | not backtested | US Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses 2022 |
| O7 · Ceiling | 10 | evidenced | DESCRIPTIVE ONLY · ρ +0.05 | US Census Business Dynamics Statistics — public domain |
Every licensed occupation in this industry
| Occupation | Share here | Concentration | Jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, School | 65.63% | 263.4× | 28 of 56 |
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 0.9% | 9.4× | 28 of 56 |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 5.45% | 35.7× | 27 of 56 |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 1.36% | 10.4× | 5 of 56 |
| Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 3.03% | 17.3× | 1 of 56 |
| General and Operations Managers | 0.97% | 0.4× | 23 of 56 |
What this report cannot tell you
| Gap |
|---|
| licence titles in this scope — none matched 'Bus Drivers, School', though it is licensed in 28 jurisdictions nationally. The title differs locally, or the record is held municipally. |
| occupation mix for NAICS 485410 — the labour statistics carry no rows at this level, so everything about occupations here, including the defining occupation and its licence gate, is measured at NAICS 485400, a broader grouping. Establishment counts are for 485410 itself. |
| licence coverage — the register holds 54 of 56 US licensing jurisdictions, and 2,504 of its records carry no jurisdiction at all. A count of 28 is out of 54 searched, not out of 56. The unsearched jurisdictions are not evidence of no licence. |
| bonding_required_usd — no producer, and not estimated |